“How’s the Market?” Episode 8 – August 2019

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Reading Time: 13 mins, 59 secs

Welcome to the August 2019 edition of How’s the Market? Rather than shoot a separate show this month, we opted to share a highly informative segment from Success Summit in Anaheim earlier this month. KCM Founder Steve Harney joined me on stage and shared the lowdown on what’s happening in the market and how you should handle it.

If you’re interested in seeing more of what went down at Summit, it’s not too late to purchase LiveCast so you can “own” the Summit 2019 content forever!

Here’s a transcript of our talk:

Tom:      Steve, what’s going on in the stock market? Is it going to impact the real estate industry? Give us a little oracle state of the union.

Steve:   Okay, uh, I’m not worried about the stock market as much as I’m worried about the words that are coming out of what happened in the stock market. On wednes-

Tom:      Say that again.

Steve:   I’m not worried about the stock market, it’s recovered over 400 points since Wednesday-

Tom:      Yep-

Steve:   I’m not worried about that. I’m worried about the words that what took place in the stock market and is continuing to, what word is being triggered because you cannot look at a financial newspaper or financial website right now without the word, recession, across the top. And what we have to realize is that word is not a scary word, except to your clients.

Tom:      Okay-

Steve:   So-

Tom:      Please write that down-

Steve:   All right [crosstalk 00:00:59], how many people-

Tom:      So actually it is not scary to us-

Steve:   My- my- my eyes are a little bit weird. How many people are [KC] members? Just stand up so I get a feel for that. How many me- people are [KCM] members? Oh, a lot of people, okay. All right. Good job, good job. Don’t … You don’t worry about taking copious notes. What happened this past week, we guessed that was coming-

Tom:      Yep.

Steve:   So if you go to this month’s KCM that we released on Monday, um, you were here, I’m sure you didn’t look at it yet. We have 12, 15 slides exactly how to handle this problem. We guessed it was coming. We thought it was gonna come next month, not next week, but you have all the answers. So don’t you worry about writing things down, you’ll get that when you go back home and look at your KCM, along with a bunch of slides. Everyone else, take Tom’s advice. I’d never ask you to write anything down, I’m going to ask you to write things down today.

Tom:      Good.

Steve:   Okay. So the first thing I want everyone to understand, first thing to write down, because when you’re having conversations with your clients, and let me, uh, explain to you how this is gonna manifest itself in your business. People are not gonna call you up and say … Probably they’re not gonna call you up and say, “There’s a recession coming.” What’s gonna happen is some of your buyers are gonna ghost you. Now, for the older people in here, that means they’re gonna ignore you.

Audience:           (laughs).

Steve:   The younger kid said, “No one’s ignoring me, no. They don’t ignore me, they ghost me.” It means exactly the same thing. They won’t return your phone calls, they won’t return your texts. The reason that was is they read the financial newspapers and decided not to buy. You’re gonna see how it’s gonna manifest itself in your business, you’re gonna have sellers that were ready to put their house on the market, all of the sudden call you and say, “Nah, we decided to wait a year or two.” And those families are getting hurt ’cause they’re making decisions not on reality, but their perception of reality, and the only people that can control that reali- the real reality, control that narrative, are the people sitting in this room.

Steve:   My anniversary was Wednesday, so I had to get dipe- dispensation from the Pope, my wife, to even come out here. But the promise was, that I’d be home Friday and we’d celebrate our anniversary on Saturday. When the world blew up Wednesday morning, when the stock market blew up [inaudible] Wednesday morning, Tom turned around and said, “Could you stay?” Now, what I knew was, I gotta get permission from my wife. And my wife said, “Did they have to hear what you have to say?”

Audience:           Yes.

Steve:   And I said, “Yes.” And she told me that, she’s gonna let her boyfriend know he can stay an extra day too.

Audience:           (laughs).

Steve:   But now, here’s what you write down, number one, we’re in the longest economic recovery in American history. We are the- in the longest-

Tom:      Yes-

Steve:   Economic recovery in American history. What ends an economic recovery-

Tom:      Hey, hold on, hold on. They can’t write that fast.

Steve:   Oh, I’m sorry. We are [crosstalk 00:04:15].

Tom:      Why don’t you just write down, say it out loud.

Audience:           [crosstalk 00:04:17].

Tom:      Okay, is that an important distinction for us? By the way is that a headline of a video you’re going to show-

Steve:   Bingo, bingo, bingo-

Tom:      In the next 48 hours. We are in the longest recovery in American history. That’s a good headline. Even for my Canadian friends, for my friends in Mexico, for my friends in Europe, for my friends in Australia, like talk about the global market.

Steve:   So now, that’s number one. Number two, I want you to write down. What ends a recovery is an economic slowdown.

Tom:      What ends a recovery [crosstalk 00:04:57].

Steve:   Is an economic … That’s when they say the recovery’s over.

Tom:      Yep.

Steve:   So let me define, economic slowdown. Two consecutive quarters that GDP slipped. Now, the important thing I want you to understand, what I just defined is the definition of the word, recession. An economic slowdown, that uh, two quarters in a row, GDP slid. The definition is not housing crisis. Definition recession is not housing crisis.

Tom:      That’s the second video you [shooed 00:05:41], what’s the difference between a recession and a housing crisis? What’s the difference between a recession and a housing crisis? That would be a be- that would be a headline that’s gonna get clicked on, it’s gonna go viral, people are gonna talk about it, they’re gonna share it. Keep going.

Steve:   Okay. So now, you- you have a situation that you understand what’s about to take place. Longest recovery in the American economic history is gonna eventually slowdown. It’s probably gonna be soon. Now, if you remember, how many elite members in here, raise your hand. Remember what I told you back in February? This fall, the word, recession’s gonna be all over the papers. And I apologize, I missed it by two weeks-

Audience:           (laughs).

Steve:   And it’s gonna continue until when? Election day.

Tom:      Yep.

Steve:   Because half of the people in this country are gonna run on, “This is the best economy in the history- in American history,” and the other half are gonna say, “It’s full of holes, cracking, and about to crumble.” So at least half your clients, ’cause it’s about 50-50. About half your clients are gonna believe that this thing’s about to come apart.

Tom:      How would you in a video address in a non-denominational way, both parties in one video?

Steve:   What … Well, I- I wouldn’t worry about addressing either parties, so both parties. I would just say, “This is what’s really happening.”

Tom:      Yeah.

Steve:   All right. Give ’em the real news.

Tom:      Yeah.

Steve:   And just keep on [inaudible 00:07:24]. Now, uh, videos are crucially important. I know that Tom spent all the first day here on that, and wh- what I’m trying to do is give you some content for those videos. He caught on that immediately.

Tom:      Yep.

Steve:   I’m trying to give you content for anything that you’re putting out, your- your- your Instagram, your videos, your- your- your, uh, mailings, anything that you’re doing, this type of information has to be out there. We have to control the narrative, all right? So what’s gonna take place?

Tom:      Okay, but hold on. I want to go back. So what’s the … It’s the one side’s gonna say this, one side’s gonna say that. How do you feel about buying and selling today? And then they go into their talk?

Steve:   Yeah, d- wh- uh, I would even say, one side’s gonna say this, one side’s gonna say that, that’s a given. What I would say is something about for the- to destroy the midst of what’s being said about the recession, here we go. It’s something … Now, I’m not a title writer-

Tom:      Yeah-

Steve:   But something along those lines. I would address the fact that the recession isn’t what they think it is. Now, ladies and gentleman, let me give you a little, uh, tough news. Realtor.com just recently did a survey. They asked your clients, “Do you believe a- a recession is about to take place?” 42 p- 42% said yes. They then asked them a second question, “Do you think it will be better or worse than 2008?” 59% said, “It would be as bad or worse than 2008.”

Tom:      Wow.

Steve:   Okay. So that’s what your clients are already thinking. Now, we have the word, recession, coming into every headline. You have to get out in front of that, and one of the reasons my wife said, “Did they need to hear it?” I tell Tom this, I tell everyone I- when I come out here. You have more power in the American real estate business, in the real estate market than any group of people I could speak to. Your ambassador’s going back into the communities, you’re the leaders in your industry and your communities. You’re the trusted advisors. You’re the people politicians listen to, even though you don’t even know it, and your clients listen to when their families listen to. So you have to give them exactly what’s taking place.

Steve:   Yes, have there been surveys where, uh, economists and analysts believe that a recession is right around the corner? Yes, they do believe that. But you know what’s not in the news? Write this down. The most recent survey done, they asked them more than the question, “When do you think a recessions coming.” The majority said, “Before the election next year.” Here’s another question they asked ’em, “What’s gonna be a trigger of that?” Now, in 2008, you know what the number one triggered reception wa- uh, recession was? Housing. You know what the number two trigger was? A mo- melting mortgage market.

Tom:      Wait, hold on. Are you guys writing that down?

Steve:   That was 2008.

Tom:      But you want to reference that. You want to say, “Hey, today I’m gonna talk to you about is this happening?” Here’s the first thing you’re gonna say, “If 52 or what the number is said, it’s gonna be a recession equals a housing meltdown, and it’s gonna be worse in 2008. Let’s remember, in 2008, the two things that caused it were A and B.”

Steve:   Now those same people that projected the recession, the same day in the same vervey- survey … Same people, same day, same survey said the number one trigger was gonna be a trade war. Man, that sounds familiar. Number two trigger was gonna be a stock market correction. Wuh, maybe. Number three trigger was gonna be a geopolitical event, we don’t know what’s gonna happen there. You know where housing came in? Not number four, not number five, not number six, not number seven, not number eight. A housing slowdown was the ninth thing they thought might cause it. So we went from number one to number nine, and it wasn’t housing crisis, it was a housing slowdown. So-

Tom:      Hey, say the whole thing again. This is so important [crosstalk 00:11:32]. This is what you need to be shooting videos on right now [crosstalk 00:11:36].

Steve:   Did someone take good notes and give ’em to me? I forgot what I said. No.

Audience:           (laughs).

Steve:   I usually have my slides-

Tom:      I know-

Steve:   This was a last minute thing. No [crosstalk 00:11:43]. All right, so let’s do it again-

Tom:      2008 [crosstalk 00:11:44].

Steve:   The same people, the-

Tom:      I got it.

Steve:   The same people, the same day, and the same survey … Somebody give him a downer or something, I don’t know.

Audience:           (laughs).

Tom:      No, I’m just gonna hit record.

Steve:   (laughs). They said, “Yes, a recession’s coming,” but the same people, same day, same survey also said, “Housing is not gonna be the cause of it, housing’s not even gonna be anywhere near the reason for it.” They also, on the same day, on the same survey, the same people said, “Prices were gonna continue appreciating for the next five years.” Same people, same survey, some the same day. This is not 2008, but your clients think it is.

Tom:      Of course they do. How much pain did they feel then?

Steve:   Yeah.

Tom:      So what you need to do is you need to know what I just told you, and like Tom said, write it down and know it.

Steve:   Okay. Now, again, The KC members, you have all sort of slides in this. If you’re not a KCM member, I’m gonna ask you to write down one thing is the first time, anytime I spoke, that I asked anybody to do this. Write down try KCM.com. Get a free trial. Get all the slides from this month, it’ll give you all the slides of what I’m saying now, so you can show them, and then cancel your subscription if you want to. I just can’t give ’em to you, ’cause I didn’t bring ’em with me. All right? Try KCM.com. And ladies and gentlemen, if you don’t have good information, keep the subscription until election day next year-

Tom:      Yeah-

Steve:   You’re gonna need it.

Tom:      Strongly recommend it.

Steve:   It’s $25 a month. It’s less than $400 till election time next year. Invest $400 in your own education to make sure that you have the answers as they unfold, ’cause it’s gonna get a little bit wild and crazy, not in reality, but in headlines. There’s gonna be media alarmists that are gonna make this much bigger than they’re supposed to be. Now, let’s go back one more time, ’cause my time is out. One last thing I want to say, this recession is not gonna duplicate 2008, though your clients think it is. It’s gonna replicate much closer to 2001 recession.

Tom:      Thank you.

Steve:   In the 2001 recession … Write this down. In the 2001 recession, the stock market fell almost 25%. In 2001 recession, the stock market fell 20 … almost 25%. Housing crisis went up 6.6%, almost double historic norms. You have to distinguish with your clients, the difference between the word, recession today versus 2008 and 2001, ’cause when they hear the word, they think 2008, you have to get them to think 2001. Throw up the slide. I have one slide, it’s the only one I had in my bag. All right. I don’t know if it’s up there? Yeah.

Tom:      It’s up there.

Steve:   Here are the last five recessions. In the last five … Obviously the last one, which was caused by housing and the mortgage meltdown, prices dropped dramatically. The four before that, one other time, the prices fall less than 2%. The other three times, prices went up during the recession, and two of the three times, they went up higher than normal appreciation. Why? ‘Cause you’re seeing this in the bottom of the headlines in the news, financial news, when the market gets crazy, pu- pu- people pull out and buy real estate. So all your clients that are afraid right now, they’re afraid about the wrong thing. Don’t let that happen. Now, I will tell you, whether you become a KCM member or not, but I do think you should. Just uh, till- till election day, then you can do whatever the hell you want to do. But from now until election day, it’s gonna be wild and crazy. You need help, okay? But you now … It’s not just your job. This is what I want to say to you, and I’ll end it here, Tom. Unless you have any other questions?

Tom:      No, I want to do a Q&A-

Steve:   This is not your j- this is not your job, this is not your responsibility, you’re not that level agent. You have much … What you do is much greater than most agents in this country. Get that. You don’t … This is not your job, this is not your responsibility, this is your moral imperative to get this information out.



 

 

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