“How’s the Market?” Episode 2 – February 2019

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In this month’s “How’s the Market?” we take a look at projections for the spring market from some of the top real estate economists – and what those projections mean for home buyers and sellers in your market.

PS: If you’d like to get more insights into what Steve Harney and his team at KCM can do for you, click here.

Let me know your feedback in the comments below!

Below is a transcript of the show…

Hey, welcome back to February’s edition of How’s the Market? In case you missed the first one, once a month, in conjunction with KCM, Keeping Current Matters, we’re gonna be distilling the data, keeping you up to date, and ultimately helping you make sense of what’s happening in the market. So you can do the same for your buyers and your sellers in your hometown.

Today, we’re looking at projections for the spring market from some of the top forecasters and experts in the real estate industry.

The first is from Mike Fratantoni, the Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mike is expecting a strong and solid spring market as long as the rates stay where they’re at, inventory continues to grow, which we know that’s happening, and of course, the job market remains steady. If I were you, I would have that In some form or presentation to be able to say, “Here’s what everyone’s saying nationally and then here’s what’s going on locally in your marketplace.”

Then there’s what Ivy Zelman said of The Z Report. She states that from our perspective, additional inventory is a very good thing. However, home buyers do dislike a little uncertainty more than most things. And the transition period from inventory being way too tight to inventory rising has indeed added some uncertainty in the market. Now think about that for a moment.

And finally, Ralph McLaughlin, CoreLogic’s Deputy Chief Economist foresees a soft landing, but says it really depends on whether buyers and sellers start to panic as the market continues to slow. Especially given how fresh the memories of the 2008 crash are.

Now as you hear that, I’m gonna remind you that what’s important now is to pay attention to buyers and sellers psychology and your own personal psychology, how you feel about the market. All this change creates uncertainty. And that’s what scares most consumers.

So what’s the big takeaway here? Just as Steve and I have been saying for the last few months, now more than ever, the strength of your business will be dictated on how many listings you can take. And communication is absolutely going to be the key. In your local market, You need to disprove the media myths, the headlines that are scaring many people until you read deeper into the article where it actually says things are really okay. Don’t allow the fear to take over. Nothing bad is actually happening. Talk to people about the opportunities that are out there now. For example, for buyers with inventory up and price acceleration decreasing. Not prices going down, price acceleration decreasing. That means that buyers have more options, more selectivity. But they might also see price changes and more listings coming on the market as a negative. It’s up to you and I to explain why it’s not. It’s actually an opportunity that they’ve been waiting for.

So as we wrap this up, I’m always gonna ask you the same question. What are you going to do with this information? A lot of our best clients are saying we keep some of these key stats, write on our phone so when someone says, “How’s the market?” Sure, we know the script is, “It depends, are you looking to buy, sell, invest, or rent?” But at a certain point, people are wanting to go deeper. What’s really happening? And to be able to pull up the stats and say, “This is what’s happening nationally. Now let me show you exactly what’s going on locally.” At the end of the day, you can diffuse a lot of the fear by having the stats and understanding what are the most influential economists saying about today’s real estate market.

So thank you so much for watching and I look forward to sharing again with you next month.

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